Should you buy a home now, or wait and hope the market gets better?
It’s one of the most common questions I hear from buyers here in Brevard County—and I completely understand why.
Buying a home is a big financial decision. When mortgage rates, home prices, and monthly payments are all part of the equation, it’s natural to wonder whether waiting another year or two could save you money.
Maybe rates will come down. Maybe prices will soften. Maybe there will be more homes to choose from.
Or maybe the home that fits your life and your budget today will cost more by the time you decide to make your move.
That’s what makes trying to time the real estate market so difficult.
A nationwide study from AD Mortgage looked at 23 years of housing data across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The researchers compared what happened when buyers purchased a home right away with what happened when they waited two years.
The result may surprise you:
Buying now produced the better financial outcome in 61% of the historical scenarios studied.
And here in Florida, that number was even higher.
Buying now came out ahead in 74% of Florida scenarios.
That doesn’t mean everyone in Brevard County should rush out and buy a home today. But it does offer an important reminder: waiting for the “perfect” market can come with its own financial risks.
What Did the Buy Now vs. Wait Study Compare?
For every state and year analyzed between 2000 and 2022, A&D Mortgage compared two choices:
Buy now: Purchase a home during the starting year.
Wait two years: Continue saving for two years, then purchase under the actual market conditions that existed at that time.
For both scenarios, the study considered average home prices, a 15% down payment, average 30-year mortgage rates, and household income. Buyers in the waiting scenario were assumed to save an additional 10% of median household income during each of those two years.
Whichever option produced the lower total purchase and financing cost was considered the better outcome.
Across the country, buying immediately won 61% of the time.
Florida and California had the strongest results in favor of buying sooner, with a 74% buy-now advantage. West Virginia was near the other end of the spectrum at 39%.
That difference matters because real estate is local.
What happens nationally—or even across Florida—doesn’t always tell you exactly what’s happening in Melbourne, Viera, Palm Bay, Merritt Island, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, Titusville, or another Brevard County community.
That’s why your decision should start with your finances and the specific homes available to you, rather than a national headline.
Why Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates May Not Save You Money
Mortgage rates are often the first thing buyers mention when they tell me they’re thinking about waiting.
The logic sounds reasonable.
If mortgage rates go down, your monthly principal-and-interest payment could go down too.
But there’s another side of the equation.
While you’re waiting for rates to fall, home prices can change. The home you could afford today may be priced differently two years from now. Your rent may increase. Inventory can tighten. And the amount you manage to save may or may not outweigh those changes.
The A&D Mortgage study gives us two interesting examples.
From 2000 to 2002, average mortgage rates fell from 8.05% to 6.54%. In that period, waiting often worked better, with buying immediately winning only 34% of the scenarios analyzed.
Now compare that with 2013 to 2015.
Rates also fell—from 3.98% to 3.85%—yet buying in 2013 still produced the better outcome in 84% of the scenarios.
Same basic idea: rates went down.
Very different result.
That’s because mortgage rates are only one piece of home affordability.
Home prices, your down payment, your income, available inventory, insurance costs, taxes, and your personal timeline all matter too.
There Has Never Been One Perfect Time to Buy a Home
If there were an obvious signal telling us exactly when to buy, real estate would be easy.
History shows something very different.
According to the study, buying immediately dominated from 2003 through 2005, winning between 94% and 100% of the scenarios analyzed.
Then the housing crash changed everything. From 2007 through 2010, waiting won in every year studied.
By 2015 through 2017, buying sooner was back on top, winning 92% to 100% of scenarios.
And from 2020 through 2022, buying immediately won 100% of the scenarios analyzed each year.
Looking backward, those turning points can seem obvious.
Living through them is different.
Markets change because of interest rates, housing supply, employment, consumer confidence, economic conditions, migration patterns, and plenty of other factors. Predicting how all of those pieces will come together two years from now is incredibly difficult.
That’s why I generally encourage Brevard County buyers to focus less on finding the perfect market and more on finding the right opportunity for their life.
What Does This Mean for Brevard County Homebuyers?
Imagine you find a home in Brevard County that checks the important boxes.
You like the neighborhood. The monthly payment works comfortably within your budget. You plan to stay long enough for homeownership to make sense. You have money available for your down payment, closing costs, and the expenses that come with owning a home.
Would waiting automatically put you in a better position?
Not necessarily.
Rates could fall.
But home prices could rise.
More homes could come onto the market.
Or fewer could.
Your financial situation might improve dramatically.
Or life could change in a way you never anticipated.
The point isn’t that buying now always wins.
It clearly doesn’t.
The point is that waiting is also a market decision, and it comes with uncertainty of its own.
Your Readiness Matters More Than Trying to Predict the Market
One of the most useful conclusions from the study is that buyers may be better served by evaluating their financial readiness instead of trying to predict future market conditions.
So instead of asking only:
“Is this the perfect time to buy?”
Try asking:
“Would buying a home make sense for me right now?”
That usually means looking at things like:
How much you have saved
The monthly payment you can comfortably afford
Your expected closing costs
Property taxes and homeowners insurance
HOA or condo fees, if applicable
Maintenance and repair expenses
How long you expect to own the property
Whether you have enough emergency savings left after closing
And here in Brevard County, insurance, flood zones, property type, location, and HOA or condo costs can make two similarly priced homes look very different once you calculate the true monthly expense.
Those details matter.
One Important Limitation of the Study
The A&D Mortgage research is useful, but it isn’t meant to predict what will happen next.
The study intentionally left several costs and benefits out of its comparison, including home equity, future appreciation, property taxes, homeowners insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, rent, investment returns, and certain tax benefits.
So I wouldn’t look at the 74% Florida figure and say, “That proves I need to buy today.”
Instead, I’d look at it this way:
History shows that waiting for a better market has not consistently produced a better financial outcome.
That’s a much more useful takeaway.
So, Should You Buy Now or Wait in Brevard County?
There isn’t one answer that works for every buyer.
If purchasing a home today would stretch your budget too far, drain your emergency savings, or leave you uncomfortable with the monthly payment, waiting may be exactly the right choice.
But if your finances are in good shape, you expect to stay in the home for a reasonable amount of time, and you find a property that fits both your life and your budget, waiting simply because you hope the market will become “perfect” may not give you the advantage you expect.
You don’t need to predict where mortgage rates or Brevard County home prices will be two years from now.
You need to understand the numbers in front of you today.
And sometimes, once you see those numbers clearly, the decision starts to feel a lot easier.
If you’re wondering whether buying a home makes sense for you right now, I’m always happy to help you look at the Brevard County real estate market, talk through your options, and understand what the numbers could mean for your situation.
No pressure—just good information so you can make your next move with confidence.
Sources: AD Mortgage, BAM
